GOP, What’s Next?
Let’s begin with a few questions.
Why does the United States have a two-party system?
Some history as a visual:
You might recall from high school history class that the parties swapped names at one point. That’s why Republicans (the GOP, aka. the “Grand Old Party”) get call themselves “The Party of Lincoln”. Obviously, the belief system of Republicans at that time (mid-1850s) differed from the modern era party.
What about a third party?
Mmhmm. I thought you’d ask about that.
Some Gen Xers are, perhaps without knowing it, part of a sub-group called The Third Way. Those that came of age during the H.W. Bush and Clinton administrations may find these political philosophies appealing and a “moderate” position that harkens back to ye olde times (1992) when reaching across the aisle felt a little more feasible.
Currently, we do not have viable third parties in the United States. Period. This doesn’t mean we can’t have one in the future. We almost certainly should.
It’s predicted that if Trump wins the 2024 election (and Democracy survives) that Democrats will move to the right with the hope of sweeping the 2026 midterms. This is a bad idea. As is famously said (possibly by Gandhi), “Be the change you want to see in the world.”
Watch this 1-minute clip from The West Wing (tv show) in which Bruno, a political strategist, pushes the Democrats to lean in on their values. “Let's Have Two Parties, huh?”
Aren’t there “concepts” of a 6-party system?
The New York Times just recently dropped this 20 Questions piece to determine where you stand.
The questions are… pretty good. I will say that I personally feel the phrasing is a bit awkward… perhaps that is to make sure those responding are actually paying attention? Hello, reading comprehension 101.
I answered one question in a manner that I felt was more pragmatic and less foolishly idealistic and this slightly shifted my theoretical party affiliation. Only slightly, but still this makes me believe the questions could be improved. Further, I don’t think the test accurately reflected my party position (and neither do any of the six parties below.)
NYT lists these six theoretical parties:
· Patriot Party (extremely socially conservative & right of center on economic issues)
· Christian Conservative Party (very socially conservative & extremely economically conservative)
· American Labor Party (moderate on social issues & liberal on economic issues)
· Growth & Opportunity Party (economically rather conservative & moderate on social issues)
· New Liberal Party (very socially progressive & left of center on economic issues)
· Progressive Party (extremely liberal on social issues & extremely liberal on economic issues)
Progressive Party:
“The Progressive Party is focused on equity and racial justice, with a strong vision of inclusive social democracy. Its strongest support comes from politically engaged, highly educated younger people, especially women.”
“Its potential leaders include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren or Julián Castro. Based on data from the Democracy Fund’s VOTER survey, this party would be the best fit for about 14 percent of the electorate.”
Progressive Party attributes:
Majority white. Pretty well educated. Low earners. Follow the news closely. All over the U.S.
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“There is no “center” party here. That is because there are very few voters in the middle across all issues. Many readers who consider themselves centrist might also think of themselves as socially liberal/fiscally moderate or socially moderate/fiscally conservative. They will find a home in either the New Liberal Party or the Growth and Opportunity Party.”
I like the name of the “Growth and Opportunity Party” though I’d want to see a detailed breakdown of what this party is supposed to encompass, when it comes to policy. “Fiscally moderate” is a nebulous phrasing and it doesn’t sound realistic in practice.
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What If
There’s some talk in the NYT piece that goes with an important “What if” question— what if the U.S. had a coalition government?
Now, I’m not advocating for the Czech Republic’s “Pirate Party”—but, whoa, who thought you were allowed to have that as your name? This is just like Wales cleverly putting a dragon on their flag as if anyone else conceived that was even an option. While we’re on the flag subject, I’ll note my love of the Azerbaijani flag with its unique color combo. Also, shout-out to Albania for having a flag that I find absolutely terrifying.
Back on point.
There are notable countries with coalition governments. Are they imperfect? Obviously.
What are some pros and cons of coalition governments, you ask?
Well, they’re inclusive for one thing. For example, in the U.S. we would give MAGA a little slice of the pie. They’d live in plain sight like Germany’s National Democratic Party of Germany (aka. NPD), which is a far-right neo-Nazi party. Look, we all knew Nazis were eventually going to get mentioned in this piece.
Part of me likes having the haters in plain sight so our intelligence groups can keep an eye on them. On the other hand, Aziz has a point in this SNL opening monologue.
Beyond inclusivity and representation… coalition governments are known for attributes including the need for collaboration and shared accountability. These same pros can also be drawbacks. It’s harder to implement policy and accountability becomes murky. Governance can be weak, and reforms are more likely to be watered down. Gridlock is a problem as there is no figurehead who can wield a decisive vote using executive privileges.
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Back to the NYT piece suggesting a 6-party system. If I’m reading the charts correctly… it looks like the largest number of American voters would fall in the “Growth & Opportunity Party” which, you’ll recall from above is economically rather conservative and moderate on social issues. This doesn’t sound correct.
My understanding is that Americans are actually more liberal on social issues than polls usually indicate.
Both current major political parties spend a lot of money when in power so neither can make the claim that they are fiscally conservative. Interestingly, if this NYT data is accurate, it reveals that Americans would prefer if the U.S. balanced the budget… But we don’t really want that because we tend to want “progress” (for the sake of progress) and we also want more money funneled into social programs (even those who think they don’t).
As usual, the populace doesn’t really know what they want or need… and so we require governance at the national level. This remains part of the argument for the Electoral College to continue its fraught existence (discussed with intensity every four years and then set aside with a shrug). If the Popular Vote determined election winners, and gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement were not factors, Democrats would win every foreseeable future election. But the political climate is always changing.
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What is the GOP to do?
Republicans have gone astray and lost their party. Party leadership recognizes this. Many GOP members fell in line with Trump and his demagogical ways. Trump, mafia boss style, took over the party. Real Republicans should be pissed. I’m sure many of them are.
The reality is that in a two-party system people tend to vote the party line. They just do. As the story goes— “My father voted always voted for X and so that’s why I do.”
Not everyone who is voting for Trump is a racist. Not everyone voting for Trump is a fascist.
Unfortunately, people have been brainwashed. It’s not entirely their fault. People like Trump are skilled in this particular area of manipulation. Trump is not a good businessman and he’s a terrible person, but he has a unique skillset when it comes to mental gymnastics. Well, he had these skills. His mind appears to be unraveling due to a combination of age and deteriorating mental health. Much like his good friend, Putin.
There are smart people that Conservatives have on tap. They can build a new party.
I read Sohrab Ahmari’s book Tyranny, Inc. when it came out and the man is intelligent. But I don’t agree with his positions.
I’d look to those brave enough to openly oppose Trump.
Liz Cheyney comes to mind as a #1 draft pick.
Nikki Hayley is highly intelligent. This became clear when she gave a State of the Union rebuttal some years back.
I want to encourage the GOP to put a woman on the top of the ticket in 2028. That being said, there are all too many “trad wives” and the like who don’t believe a woman should hold the highest office in the land. Sad.
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If we maintain a two-party system, and odds are that we will do so for at least the time being, it only works when both parties are functional. Functional includes having set morals, ethics, policies, agendas, and not “concepts of a plan”. Republicans used to stand for something. While I didn’t agree with most of these positions, they were positions that a person could justify.
Trump offers nothing justifiable.
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Real Republicans will vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Overall, Harris is a moderate, center-left leaning Democrat.
Will Harris’ administration be mostly a continuation of the Biden administration?
Well, that’s hard to say. Biden has gotten a lot done behind the scenes. It’s impressive given the situation he inherited from Trump’s first term, the political turmoil, division and gridlock in Congress. He’ll go down as a good President. As well we know, ratings change (typically for the better) once a President leaves office.
Will Harris’ administration be more left-leaning than the Obama administration?
Yes, I think so. That’s because Obama ended up being extremely Moderate. Lots of folks on the Progressive Left were not pleased with Obama era policies and legislation. But, let’s be honest, sensible people love Obama as a person. He’s more likeable than Bill Clinton was in his prime and that’s saying something. Clinton was seen as “cool” which was not normal for a sitting President. W. (Bush) was not seen as cool. W. looks better in hindsight because Trump has been such a nightmare (understatement).
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Where does Harris stand on left leaning issues?
Let’s look at Harris vs. AOC.
Here’s where it will become more obvious that Harris is more of a Moderate party-line Democrat.
AOC: Medicare for All.
Harris: Fix the Affordable Care Act (ACA, aka. Obamacare). The ACA was gutted under Trump’s presidency making it ineffective. Harris is going to attempt to make healthcare more affordable and accessible but she’s not going to overhaul the whole system.
AOC: Housing as a Human Right.
Harris: $25,000 to help first-time homeowners consider a shift from seeing themselves as “forever renters” to the possibility of homeonership. Trying to make people (read: millennials) feel like homeownership is attainable and that it’s an asset as opposed to a liability.
AOC: A Peace Economy
Harris: Will make the choices that all Presidents have to make. They are hard choices. She’s not going to start any irrational wars but she’ll do what is necessary. American policy is to fight to protect and defend our allies. Harris will also repair America’s reputation with NATO. Our defense budget is not about to take a big hit.
AOC: Justice for Workers & Small Businesses.
Harris: Strengthen the Middle Class. Yes, Harris will try to assist unions as well as take steps to help small businesses thrive. “Justice for workers” would require a focus on the Working Poor and this is a large number of people that are consistently overlooked by both parties— though more so by Republicans who brazenly (ahem, Mitt Romney) will say they don’t care about poor people.
AOC: Real public safety.
Harris: Harris will not defund the police. Harris is a former prosecutor who is tough on crime.
AOC: Honor in Immigration.
Harris: Tough on immigration and border control.
AOC: Helping Puerto Rico
Harris: Will not harm Puerto Rico intentionally. Puerto Rico will not get statehood or anything like that under Harris.
AOC: Green New Deal.
Harris: Harris has openly acknowledged the need for using all forms of energy. Harris has repeatedly said that we need to take advantage of fracking in order to avoid paying problematic international actors (read: Saudi Arabia) for oil and other energy resources. Focus on less foreign oil, essentially. Fracking is openly disdained by the Progressive Left.
AOC: Elevate Public Education.
Harris: I suspect Harris will likely focus on college affordability over K-12 initiatives. She will be an overall pro-education president, no question.
AOC: Women’s Rights.
Harris: Yes, Harris will protect Women’s Rights including all matters associated with women’s healthcare.
AOC: Support LGBTQIA+ Rights.
Harris: Yes, Harris will by an ally to the queer community. However, I do expect aiding the queer community will be a strong focus of the Harris administration.
AOC: Aging with Dignity.
Harris: Harris will help make in-home healthcare more available for seniors.
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What are your thoughts?
How can Republicans move forward post-Trump?